VDC Finds Growth in Switch Consumption Coming From 3 Regions, in 3 Phases, in 2003
9/17/2002 - The global switch market has grown by over $800 million since 1991, and will reach US$ 3.3 billion in 2002. The exhibit below portrays shares of the global switch market by major regional market for 1991, compared to 2002. With regard to the three main market regions of the global switch market:
- The Asia-Pacific region's share of global switch consumption has fallen from a high of 42.9% in 1996. Much of this decline is a result of the Asian economic crisis of 1997 and Japan's prolonged recession.
- The global share of EMEA (Europe, Middle East and Africa) has fallen since 1991, but has increased in share since 1996, at the expense of Asia-Pacific share.
- Consumption of switches in the Americas (North, South and Central America), as a percentage of the global market, has increased since 1991. This increase in share coincides with the United States' unprecedented decade of growth as well as increased regional trade through NAFTA.
Due mainly to slow, yet steady, increases in the demand for products that utilize electromechanical switches, a period of flat growth should be ending, and a global rebound should occur for the consumption of many switch types, according to John Gordon, VDC's switch market analyst. Gordon goes on to say, "This is forecast to happen starting sometime in the first half of 2003 as demand slowly penetrates many vertical markets in the United States, Great Britain, France, China, and several other major country markets globally." In its recent study, released in September 2002, VDC forecasts the following for the global switch market:
- A recovery in demand for switches is expected for the Americas after a relatively flat 2002. Switch consumption is expected to rebound and grow at 3.6% during 2003. After this time, demand will level out and finish the forecast period growing at a healthy 3.2%.
- After a growth rate of -4.2% during 2001, switch consumption in the EMEA region will grow at an increasing rate each year through 2006.
- Switch consumption in the Asia-Pacific region will continue to be volatile. Cyclical oversupply will cause the market to dip dramatically in 2003/2004, before returning to a normal, level growth rate.
According to forecasts found in VDC's newest research: The 2002 Global Switch Market Intelligence Service, worldwide consumption of switches will total US$ 3,335.7 million in 2002 and is forecast to reach US$ 3,748.0 million in 2006, growing at a compound annual rate (CAGR) of 3.0%. The forecast period will be characterized by three distinct phases:
- An adjustment period, with little or no growth, will run until the end of 2002.
- A recovery period, during which demand for switches will bounce back in many countries and applications, will occur in 2003.
- A cyclical dip in the growth rate will follow as a result of an oversupply of switches coming from the Asia-Pacific region. This dip will correct itself and average growth will round out the end of the forecast period.
About Venture Development Corporation
VDC is a technology market research and strategy firm. We have over 30 years of experience in providing market research, strategic analysis and consulting services to technology companies worldwide. VDC offers its clients a wide variety of research solutions tailored to meet their strategic business needs. These include highly customized consulting engagements, ongoing research services and select industry investigations. Through our considerable industry contacts, we also provide services related to acquisitions and the generation of key account leads.
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